Are Economic Forecasts Rational?

Are Economic Forecasts Rational?

Combining Economic Forecasts

Hyper-Rational Choice and Economic Behaviour

In this paper, with help of the concept of hyper-rationality, we model the interaction between two investment companies by an important game as trickery game that has special equilibrium which called hyper-equilibrium. In trickery game, one company can choose cooperation with another company until the last moment and finally changes his action to non-cooperation which incur more loss to an oppo...

Economic Criteria for Evaluating Commodity Price Forecasts

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitativeprecision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potentialutility gains from utilizing them, not for theiraccuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns,the expected utility of...

How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan